How does our Investment Office view 2026? The economy continues to grow, but markets remain highly dynamic, partly due to geopolitical developments. We aim to benefit from structural trends such as artificial intelligence and equities in emerging markets. At the same time, we seek stability in bonds and real estate, while making a difference through sharp selection and by seizing opportunities the moment they arise.
"},"textLinks":[{"url":"https://assets.ing.com/m/6f64148e396081a6/original/Investment-Outlook-2026.pdf","text":"Download the full Investment Outlook as PDF"}],"alignedImage":{"position":"right","transformBaseUrl":"https://assets.ing.com/transform/f99ee7a6-8041-485c-9456-5e15be067607/IO-6pager-1","original":"https://assets.ing.com/m/5ad5dde128e84292/original/IO-6pager-1.png","extension":"png"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Economy: AI keeps growth on track"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"We expect the global economy to continue growing - albeit modestly - in 2026, with artificial intelligence (AI) as an important driver. In the US, we expect a slight slowdown, but tax cuts and AI investments are likely to keep growth at around 2%. According to our Investment Office, Europe lags behind due to structural issues and geopolitical pressure, while emerging markets, led by China and India, perform clearly stronger. Globally, we expect growth to reach around 3%, slightly lower than last year.
For investors, this creates an environment with both opportunities and risks: diversification, active management and a focus on companies benefiting from AI and structural trends are crucial to potentially achieving above-average returns.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Inflation and interest rates: central banks remain active"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Monetary policy continues to be a key theme. The Fed is expected to cut rates further to support the economy, despite persistent inflation and political uncertainties surrounding Trump’s fiscal plans and the appointment of a new chair. In the eurozone, the ECB is likely to keep rates stable, while other central banks remain cautious about easing. Lower rates stimulate growth but also increase market volatility. For investors, staying alert to interest-rate developments, and their impact on bonds, equities and currencies, remains essential.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Bonds: modest outlook"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Return expectations for bonds are lower than in 2025. Government bonds remain important as a stabilising factor but rising market rates mean expected returns are minimal. Corporate bonds offer slightly better prospects, especially in the high-yield segment and in emerging markets, though expectations there also remain modest. Active management and good diversification are crucial to capturing opportunities and limiting risks.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Equities: selection becomes even more important"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"After another strong equity year, we expect a modest equity return of around 6% in 2026. Valuations are high and risk premiums are low, making active management and selection more important than ever. Differences between regions, sectors and individual companies may be significant. AI remains an important driver of earnings growth - even outside the technology sector. Diversification and a focus on quality remain essential to seize opportunities and manage risks.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Risks: US consumer and the dollar"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"For 2026, we see two major points of attention: the US consumer and the dollar. The US economy remains resilient, but the widening gap between high- and low-income households makes consumer confidence vulnerable. A weaker dollar may depress returns for euro-based investors; exchange rates remain difficult to predict. Finally, while concerns about a potential AI bubble persist, we believe strong earnings growth and solid balance sheets at major tech companies justify higher valuations. Diversification, selection and vigilance remain key.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Opportunities in AI and emerging markets"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"In 2026, we continue to see the greatest opportunities in technology - especially AI - and in emerging markets. Companies achieving productivity gains through AI remain attractive, including those outside the tech sector. Think, for example, of utilities meeting the rising demand for electricity.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Conclusion"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Markets will be volatile in 2026, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, interest-rate expectations and the turbulent AI trend. For investors, it is important not to view volatility solely as a risk but also as an opportunity: periods of turbulence often provide attractive entry points for the shares of quality companies. Read the full Investment Outlook 2026 here.
Are you curious how these expectations align with your portfolio? Your Relationship Manager will be happy to discuss this with you.
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Read more about the risks of investing.