The economy continues to grow, although at a slightly slower pace than before, while markets remain very much in motion. We aim to benefit from structural trends such as artificial intelligence (AI) and equities in emerging markets. At the same time, we are looking for stability in bonds and real estate and seek to make a difference through highly selective choices and by making smart use of opportunities as they arise.
"},"textLinks":[{"text":"Download the Investment Outlook update as PDF","url":"https://assets.ing.com/asset/ec854e56-8ccc-4b6a-aeb4-873151f39568/Beleggingsvisie-update-EN.pdf"}]},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Economy: growth remains on track, but predictability is declining"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"So far this year, the global economy has proven more resilient than previously feared. Despite geopolitical tensions, including the war in the Middle East, a global recession has been avoided. We expect economic growth to slow slightly, while inflationary pressure is unlikely to ease for the time being.
The US economy remains an important driver of growth, supported by robust consumer spending and continued strong investment, especially in AI and technology. In Europe, the picture is considerably weaker, due to higher energy prices and the limited impact of stimulus measures. China continues to grow, but at a slower pace than in previous years. Thanks to strong earnings growth and significant optimism around AI, financial markets performed notably well in the first half of 2026.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Opportunities: volatile markets create opportunities"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"The year started reasonably well for investors, but at the end of February sentiment in financial markets changed abruptly after the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East. This led to significantly higher energy prices, rising inflation and higher interest rates. Even so, by the end of June the global index was up 14% (MSCI All Country World Index, total return in euros). With many stock markets at record highs, equity investors have every reason to be pleased.
AI is expected to remain a dominant theme in the second half of the year, but investors will need to be selective. Emerging markets remain the most attractive equity region. Investors can also use volatile markets to take advantage of opportunities.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Risks: higher interest rates may start to hurt"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Higher interest rates pose a risk to equity markets if earnings growth weakens. In addition, strong demand for capital from companies could lead to more volatile markets. Finally, there remains the unpredictability of Trump, although investors appear to be paying less attention to this than before.
The rise in energy prices has led to higher inflation and inflation expectations, pushing up capital market interest rates. Although the prospect of an end to the conflict between the US and Iran has brought some calm to bond markets, we do not expect interest rates to fall sharply for now. Higher interest rates are negative for equities because they increase financing costs for companies and put pressure on valuations.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Equities: how much room is left for further gains?"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Our return expectations for the rest of 2026 are moderate. Much of the positive news has already been priced in. Thanks to strong earnings growth, equities have on average not become more expensive, despite higher share prices. However, due to the rise in capital market interest rates, the equity risk premium has fallen further to its lowest level in at least twenty years. Further price gains would require even stronger earnings growth, which is a challenge in the current economic and geopolitical climate. That said, equities can still remain attractive.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Bonds: higher interest rates highlight vulnerabilities"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"The vulnerability of government bonds is becoming increasingly clear, partly due to rising interest rates. Because of inflation linked to the war with Iran and deteriorating public finances, investors are demanding higher compensation for the risks they take. In this volatile environment, high-yield bonds and emerging market bonds stand out as relatively stable segments.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Commodities and the energy transition"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Commodities have once again proven their value in a stagflationary environment. Looking ahead, the outlook appears more favourable for metals than for fossil fuels.
The energy transition is clearly entering a new phase. The coming years are likely to be characterised less by rapid expansion and more by implementation. This includes building networks, scaling infrastructure and navigating geopolitical interests and complex regulation.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Conclusion"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Markets are likely to remain volatile in 2026, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, interest rate expectations and the powerful AI trend. For investors, it is important not to view volatility only as a risk, but also as an opportunity: periods of market unrest often create attractive entry points for shares in quality companies. Read the full Investment Outlook 2026 update here.
Are you curious how these expectations align with your portfolio? Your Relationship Manager will be happy to discuss this with you.
"}},{"cards":[{"cardSize":"small","cardType":"product","componentType":"productCard","image":{"extension":"svg","original":"https://assets.ing.com/asset/01ff1984-d388-427e-b2d4-457f3ddd7574/Vermogensbeheer-icon.svg","transformBaseUrl":"https://assets.ing.com/transform/01ff1984-d388-427e-b2d4-457f3ddd7574/Vermogensbeheer-icon","type":"image","width":213},"intro":"Benefit from the expertise and vision of the ING Investment Office.","link":{"url":"/en/private-banking/investing/portfolio-management"},"title":"Discover Portfolio management"}],"componentType":"cards"},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Disclaimer"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Investing involves risks and costs. You may lose your deposit or part of it.
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