There was considerable turmoil on equity markets last Friday. The Kimi 3 model developed by Chinese AI start-up Moonshot is reportedly almost as powerful as those of its American rivals. This has added to concerns about the earning potential of US hyperscalers and other AI-related companies. This morning, reports emerged that Moonshot could go public within six months and is already being valued at around $30 billion.
Developments in the AI sector are moving at breakneck speed, and the difference between winning and losing remains very small. For now, companies still need to invest heavily to avoid falling behind. Chipmakers continue to benefit from this trend, although their share prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks amid concerns that growth may not remain as strong as expected.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Oil stocks the only gainers on weak European markets"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Most European stock markets closed lower on Friday, with the Stoxx Europe 600 ending the day down 0.3%. Nevertheless, the index still managed to post a modest weekly gain of 0.07%.
Oil stocks (+1.6%) advanced on Friday as the conflict in the Middle East escalated again, with US and Iranian attacks becoming increasingly intense. The price of a barrel of oil rose by more than 4% on Friday to above $88. This morning, oil is already trading above $90 a barrel, the highest level since early June.
European gas prices have also climbed sharply. A megawatt hour of natural gas now costs more than €60, the highest level since March, and prices are expected to rise further. This will add upward pressure to inflation. Bond markets showed little reaction on Friday, however. Germany’s 10-year government bond yield actually fell by 1 basis point to 3.13%, although that is likely to change quickly.
Technology stocks (-2.8%) were under pressure on Friday and over the past week as investors questioned future profitability across the sector. In some cases these concerns may be justified, in others less so. The upcoming quarterly earnings reports should provide greater clarity.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"US consumer confidence improves"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment among Americans improved this month. The index rose from 49.5 to 54.4 points, well above expectations of 51. Lower energy prices and higher equity markets contributed to the improvement. The expectations component of the survey also rose, from 50.7 to 54.0, while one-year inflation expectations fell from 4.6% to 4.2%. However, the recent increase in petrol prices may already have altered that picture.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Tech stocks under pressure again"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Fears of growing Chinese competition and overinvestment in the AI sector weighed once more on technology shares last Friday. The Nasdaq closed 1.4% lower, bringing its weekly loss to 3.0%. The S&P 500 fell 1.0% on the day and ended the week down 1.6%.
Communication services stocks were the worst performers, declining 2.4%. The SOX semiconductor index dropped 1.6% and has lost 10% over the past week. Shares of SpaceX fell more than 5% to $124, below their IPO price of $135, as Elon Musk’s rockets have proved less successful than hoped. Oil stocks gained 1.2%, making energy the only sector to finish higher.
US Treasury yields moved slightly higher on Friday. The 10-year yield rose by 1 basis point to 4.55%. With oil and petrol prices increasing, upward pressure on bond yields is likely to persist.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Hong Kong the exception in a sea of red across Asia"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Japanese markets are closed today due to a public holiday. Among the markets that are open, performance is mixed this morning.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is up 1.8%, supported by Alibaba (+5%), which has unveiled a promising new AI model. Heavyweight Tencent (+3.5%) is also trading higher. Taiwan’s stock market, however, closed 0.1% lower, while Seoul’s Kospi Index has fallen by more than 4%. It seems that even there, trees do not grow to the sky.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Flat opening expected on Wall Street"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Futures on US equity indices are trading between -0.1% (Dow Jones) and +0.1% (Nasdaq 100) this morning, pointing to a flat start for Wall Street later today. European stock markets are expected to begin the new week slightly lower.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Today’s agenda"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Today’s economic calendar includes German producer price data and the US Leading Economic Index. The latter is expected to show a decline of 0.1% for June.
The corporate earnings season continues today with results from companies including Ryanair and Domino’s Pizza. It is still early in the reporting season, but of the 49 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported so far, nearly 96% have beaten analysts’ earnings expectations, by an average of 16.6%.
A very strong start. Let us see whether that momentum can be maintained in the week ahead.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":""}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":""}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":""}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":""}},{"componentType":"linkList","iconTitle":{"title":"Read More"},"textLinks":[{"text":"2026 Investment Outlook","url":"/en/personal/investing/market-news-and-views/investment-outlook-2026-home"},{"text":"Market Outlook","url":"/en/personal/investing/market-news-and-views/market-outlook"},{"text":"Number of the Week","url":"/en/personal/investing/market-news-and-views/number-of-the-week-overview"},{"text":"More News and Views","url":"/en/personal/investing/market-news-and-views"}]},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Good to know"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Investing involves risks and costs. The value of your investment may fluctuate. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Read more about the risks of investing.
This publication has been prepared on behalf of ING Bank N.V. and is intended for information purposes only. ING Bank N.V. obtains its information from sources deemed reliable and has taken the utmost care to ensure that the information on which it based its views in this publication was not incorrect or misleading at the time of publication. ING Bank N.V. does not guarantee that the information it uses is accurate or complete. The information contained in this publication may be changed without any form of announcement. Copyright and data file protection rights apply to this publication. Data from this publication may be reproduced provided that the source is stated. ING Bank N.V. has its registered office in Amsterdam, commercial register no. 33031431, and is regulated by the Dutch central bank De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) and the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is part of ING Groep N.V.
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