An investment in commodities has played its protective role during a period characterised by weak growth and rising inflation, or, in other words: stagflation. The Bloomberg Euro Hedged Commodity Index delivered a strong return of 18% (in euros) in the first half of the year. Given the scale of the energy shock — triggered by the war in Iran and the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz for almost four months — this is not surprising. Historically, the asset class has performed well during stagflationary periods.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Energy shock likely to fade gradually"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Replicating this strong performance in the second half of the year will be more challenging. The energy shock, which effectively reduced global oil supply by around 10%, is expected to ease following the peace agreement between the US and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
As oil and gas exports from Gulf countries recover, energy prices are likely to decline. That said, rebuilding damaged infrastructure will take time, meaning prices are unlikely to return quickly to pre-war levels. As a result, the negative impact on consumers’ purchasing power persists, weighing on demand. Some sectors are already feeling the effect. For example, airlines have reduced flight capacity as higher fuel costs have made certain routes unprofitable.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Supply chains remain under pressure"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Disruptions in supply chains for key commodities — including crude oil, refined products such as diesel, natural gas, fertilisers, helium and aluminium — are still evident. Conditions are gradually improving, but full normalisation will take time.
At the peak of the crisis, commodity prices reached levels comparable to those seen in 2022. However, the situation was less severe than during the previous energy crisis following the war in Ukraine. This was largely due to higher inventory levels, which provided a buffer. These inventories have now been significantly reduced and will need to be rebuilt, particularly in the energy sector. Europe, for example, delayed refilling gas storage to avoid peak prices. In oil markets, there were even concerns about potential shortages later this year. From this perspective, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz comes at a critical moment.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"More stable phase expected"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Looking ahead, the energy market is expected to move into a more stable phase in the second half of the year. While some upward price pressures remain – including inventory rebuilding and infrastructure reconstruction – overall conditions should improve. Given that energy represents nearly 30% of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, this translates into a more balanced outlook for commodities.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Preference for metals over fossil fuels"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Energy prices have already started to decline. After rising sharply earlier this year, they have corrected significantly in recent months, driven by lower oil prices. This trend reflects a familiar pattern: in response to higher prices, both households and companies reduce energy consumption. At the same time, fossil fuels face increasing competition from alternative energy sources, nuclear power and hydrogen. As a result, the most likely scenario is a gradual decline in oil and broader fossil fuel prices towards the end of the year.
By contrast, precious and industrial metals appear better positioned. Despite some recent profit-taking, gold remains supported by continued central bank buying. Industrial metals such as copper are also benefiting from structural trends. They play a key role in the transition to renewable energy and in the build-out of AI-related infrastructure, where electricity demand is rising at a rapid pace.
"}},{"componentType":"linkList","iconTitle":{"title":"Read more"},"textLinks":[{"text":"Midyear outlook 2026: Homepage","url":"/en/personal/investing/market-news-and-views/investment-outlook-2026-home"},{"text":"Midyear outlook 2026: Equities","url":"/en/personal/investing/market-news-and-views/investment-outlook-2026-equities"},{"text":"Midyear outlook 2026: Opportunities","url":"/en/personal/investing/market-news-and-views/investment-outlook-2026-opportunities"},{"text":"Midyear outlook 2026: download PDF","url":"https://assets.ing.com/m/7dfc82cb56e72468/original/Investment-Outlook-2026.pdf"}]},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Good to know"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Investing involves risks and costs. The value of your investment may fluctuate. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Read more about the risks of investing .
This publication has been prepared on behalf of ING Bank N.V. and is intended for information purposes only. ING Bank N.V. obtains its information from sources deemed reliable and has taken the utmost care to ensure that the information on which it based its views in this publication was not incorrect or misleading at the time of publication. ING Bank N.V. does not guarantee that the information it uses is accurate or complete. The information contained in this publication may be changed without any form of announcement. Copyright and data file protection rights apply to this publication. Data from this publication may be reproduced provided that the source is stated. ING Bank N.V. has its registered office in Amsterdam, commercial register no. 33031431, and is regulated by the Dutch central bank De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) and the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is part of ING Groep N.V.
"}}]},"hasMacro":false,"id":"1408c9eb-2830-4f6d-b3e9-50d300077b17","localeString":"en-GB","mainHeaderZone":{"backLink":{"textLink":{"text":"Market news and views","url":"/en/personal/investing/market-news-and-views"}},"componentType":"productHeader","coreHeader":{"body":"Commodities have once again demonstrated their value in a stagflationary environment. However, looking ahead, prospects appear more favourable for metals than for fossil fuels.","headerImage":{"extension":"jpg","original":"https://assets.ing.com/asset/f5db0de6-b498-4708-b69f-74984eaa42cb/Female-hiker-shows-muscles-on-mountain-top.jpg","transformBaseUrl":"https://assets.ing.com/transform/f5db0de6-b498-4708-b69f-74984eaa42cb/Female-hiker-shows-muscles-on-mountain-top","type":"image","width":1920},"subtitle":"Strong performance, but outlook moderates","title":"Mid-Year Outlook 2026: Commodities"}},"publishDate":"2026-06-25T12:48:25.999+02:00"}}